It's UnHerd Of...

Well... it seems Nobel prize-winning biologist Professor Michael Levitt agrees that strict lock-downs are not the way to go - they do not allow herd immunity to be developed. Countries that have adopted strict lock-downs, such as Australia and Austria, have had a lot of social disruption without much benefit in terms of immunity. The main issue is - how are the future waves of infection (and, yes, there will be future waves) going to be handled?

And now the new waves of infection are starting again. In Germany, infections are rising again after restrictions have been eased. China has had a new outbreak. As we alluded to in this blog, there will have to be a re-imposition of social distancing measures and lock-downs. There will be a feeling of déja-vu. But it will be harder the second time around. People will say 'but we endured a lock-down the first time with the promise that the virus would be stopped in its tracks... we've been good... why hasn't the virus been stopped? why are we being punished again?'.

These are very good questions. What answers will the politicians and (mainstream) epidemiologists give? Whatever their response, it will not be satisfactory. They have known that in the absence of herd immunity and/or an effective vaccine, each new major outbreak will be (almost) like the first time all over again. And this is just the second wave. What about the third, fourth and fifth waves?

Herd immunity will of course be developed, due to new waves of infection, but at a slower rate than if social distancing measures had not been too strict. But it will take several rounds of lock-downs. The big questions are - how will economies weather these challenges? And how long will it take them to recover?

It remains to be seen.